Savvy political observers believe that campaigns don’t really matter much.

The campaigns spend literally billions on air wars and ground operations. Every gaffe, goof, semi formed utterance is parsed and weighed.

Polls are published about every hour, with crosstabs probing the views of very micro-constituency.

But political scientists develop models largely grounded on the state of the economy that do a better job at predicting outcomes than the pundits do.

So the entire activity, cynics suggest, is more an employment policy for pols than a determining factor in elections.

But not this year.

With the economy faltering, unemployment over 8 per cent, the President running without a jobs agenda, Obama should be in deep trouble in this election.

And national polls still show a close race, with the Obama edge within the margin of polling error.

But in the key swing states – the states that are actually in play and will determine who wins the electoral vote and the presidency – Obama has taken growing leads – in Florida, in Ohio, in Virginia, New Hampshire and Iowa.

And this is largely because the campaign has mattered.

Most observers – and most political models – assumed that the election would be essentially a referendum on Obama’s performance.

Romney wanted to run on a simple theme: Obama’s failed; trust me.

But remarkably, Romney has achieved what most pundits thought virtually impossible.

The election has become less a referendum on Obama’s performance and more repudiation of Romney as the tribune of the 1 per cent, and the champion of social reaction.

With the aid of Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry in the Republican primary, of a lethally effective Obama campaign, and his own terminal ineptitude, Romney, the man from Bain, is finding that the more voters learn – and in swing states voters can’t escape the wall to wall ads – the less they like him.

Increasingly, despite the lousy economy, voters in swing states are focused on Romney’s agenda – a warmed over brew of the same voodoos – top end tax cuts, deep cuts in domestic programs, hikes in military spending, deregulation and corporate trade – that got us into the mess we are in.

They are increasingly convinced that Romney, the personification of the multi-millionaire who pays a lower tax rate than his secretary, doesn’t have a clue about the challenges they face.

They may think the president hasn’t succeeded. They know the economy is bad.

But increasing numbers aren’t willing to risk voting for Romney as the alternative.

Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate with his radical budget that would end Medicare as we know it has damaged his standing among seniors.

His embrace of the Republican war on women, on gays, on immigrants has consolidated Obama’s overwhelming majorities in these groups.

The young are abandoning him as part of the past.

Even white, non-college educated voters – a hard constituency for Obama in 2008 – are increasingly suspicious about the man from Bain.

So this election may provide a clear mandate after all. In spite of the economy, voters are repudiating the agenda of the right and of the plutocrats.

Progressive positions on social issues, voter support for the core security pillars that families count on – Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid seem to be enabling Obama to overcome the faltering economy and the disappointments of the first term.

Romney has made himself and his right-wing agenda the issue.

And voters are increasingly not buying what he is peddling.