The president of the Catalan government, Artur Mas, has called on citizens to cast their votes in an election he wants to act as a plebiscite on secession. He is standing as the leader of Junts Pel Sí (Together for Yes), a broad coalition of parties ranging from the ruling centre-right party Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC) to the main opposition party, left-wing Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), together with pro-independence civil society organisations.

Polls are forecasting that together the two pro-independence lists Junts Pel Sí and the radical left Candidatures d’Unitat Popular (CUP) could win an absolute majority, albeit a narrow one.

But the pro-independence formations are not the only ones proposing greater self-government for this autonomous region. Catalunya Sí Que Es Pot (Catalonia, Yes We Can), the coalition formed by the new left party Podemos and the Catalan green-socialist party Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds, are advocating a federal Spain and a consensual referendum on secession to resolve the national question in Catalonia.

Catalunya Sí Que Es Pot is fighting for second place with Ciutadans (Citizens), a social democratic/liberal party supporting a more centralised state. Ciutadans, a party founded 10 years ago in Catalonia, with a clearly unionist agenda, will stand for the first time in the Spanish elections this year and is expected to snatch around 10 per cent of the vote from the traditional conservative party, Partido Popular.

Unilateralism or a pact with the state

The pro-independence parties have opted to settle the dispute with ordinary elections, given the state’s rejection of any bid to hold a legal referendum, such as that attempted on 9 November 2014.

“These elections are to be the referendum they have not allowed us to hold,” explains Raül Romeva, who is heading the list of Junts Pel Sí, although he is not its presidential candidate. Romeva is confident about winning the 27 September elections, with the aim of then “launching a constituent process in Catalonia, from the street up, in which different country models can been examined”.

Although it is standing on a programme pledging a declaration of independence within 18 months, the main pro-independence coalition is not refusing to negotiate if the state makes an offer.

This is the idea being put forward by people like Toni Comín, a former federalist from the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), who has joined the Junts Pel Sí list at the invitation of the ERC. In his view, any future secession will have to be negotiated, but he is backing independence because it leaves “a wider margin for unilateral action”.

The idea of unilateral action is contested by Catalunya Sí Que Es Pot, which supports the holding of a referendum so long as it is agreed on with the state, and is critical of the move to turn the elections into a plebiscite on independence.

For its candidate, Lluís Rabell, the plebiscitary elections are “smothering” the desire for change in Catalonia, not only with regard to the national issue. The main challenge for his formation is to secure a good result with an eminently social programme, within a landscape polarised over independence.

A movement stretching beyond political parties

These elections will be the last chapter in a pro-independence process that has been underway for three years, during which civil society organisations have held rallies gathering millions of people every 11 September – Catalonia’s national day – in support of a referendum and independence.

The existence of a separatist movement in Catalonia is nothing new – its history can be traced back a century ago. What is novel, however, is the current level of popular support, which stands at between 40 and 50 per cent according to the polls.

“Some novel elements have emerged within the pro-sovereignty movement, such as the bottom-up trend, a degree of political promiscuity and the self-organisation network, which have endowed it with the capacity to go beyond the traditional realm of political parties,” explains political science professor Joan Subirats, who has studied sovereignty from the perspective of the “new politics”.

Beyond separatism, there are two aspirations shared by the majority of Catalan society. One, which already dates back to the last decade, is the desire for greater self-government. The other, more recent, is the desire for a referendum on self-determination.

These have been the two minimum demands of what is known as the sovereignty process of recent years, and the fuel has been injected by civil society associations such as the Assemblea Nacional Catalana (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural. Both of these groups have succeeded in setting the agenda of the parties in power like few other organisations have managed to do in Europe over the last twenty years.

Until recently, the relationship between the ANC and Òmnium and the political parties was one of pressure and scrutiny from the outside. But the calling of elections designed to serve as a plebiscite on independence and the concoction of a large electoral list in favour of the “Yes” have resulted in both organisations joining the current president of the autonomous government as candidates.

This change in the relations between civil society and political parties is viewed with ambivalence by the pro-independence movement. Some believe it could undermine the autonomy of civil society, whilst others argue that it is another phase in the “political overflow” phenomenon seen in recent years.

“The parties within Junts Pel Sí have to think about how not to create disillusionment in the new political space they have opened,” insists Anna Gabriel, number two on the electoral list of the CUP, the leftist pro-secession party that has refused to join the majority pro-independence formation.

For Gabriel, one of the greatest fears is that “the process may be stunted by a closure placed at the top”, a pact between elites that “could lead to the popular demands of recent years amounting to nothing”.

Change in Spain as an antidote to secession

The Catalan sovereignty process is set to be one of the key issues in the next legislature, not only in Catalonia but also in Spain, which is holding elections this autumn.

The two emerging parties, Ciudadanos and Podemos, almost at opposite extremes in terms of most of their proposals, do share at least one opinion, along with the PSOE, the traditional social democratic party: change in Spain could contribute to assuaging the pro-independence aspirations of Catalonia.

Their approach to resolving the Catalan issue does, however, differ. Podemos is advocating a Spanish constituent process that would reconfigure Spain’s territorial structure along federal and plurinational lines, for which improbable support of two thirds of the Chambers would be needed.

For Ciudadanos, by contrast, modernising Spain in a liberal sense would, in itself, improve the perception Catalans have of the Spanish state.

The solution advocated by a large share of the federalists is that set out by Joan Coscubiela, number three of Catalunya Sí Que Es Pot list, who recalls that to allow a referendum all that is needed is the support of an absolute majority in the Spanish Congress.

“Holding a referendum is crucial, and it is the prerequisite for drawing up a Catalan constitution,” argues Coscubiela, “A referendum with clear questions and one that can be clearly interpreted in Catalonia, Spain and the rest of Europe. This is the only way and it is an idea that Alex Salmond has defended on countless occasions.

Both the Spanish and Catalan governments are up for election within the next six months, after which the balance will very probably change in Spain and, with equally great probability, a clearly pro-independence government will be formed in Catalonia.

Come what may, the 27 September elections will tear at the territorial structure that has been in place since the return to democracy in Spain, and will test the capacity of its political agents to offer a democratic solution to the demand for independence, or risk being confronted with a unilateral declaration of independence that would turn what is currently an internal dispute into a European issue.